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tv   The Pulse  Bloomberg  May 26, 2014 5:00am-6:01am EDT

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>> petro poroshenko claims victory in ukrainian elections. in >> skeptics take on europe as protest parties gain in elections. it is a wake-up up call for mainstream politicians. good morning to her viewers in europe, good evening to our viewers in asia and a happy
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memorial day to those waking up in the united states. i'm mark. pulse live from bloomberg's european headquarters in london. >> world-class grass for world stadiums. -- he's been speaking from the ecb's first forum, jonathan ferro is here with the details. if low inflation becomes entranced, we will get the house -- becomes entrenched, we will get the house forecast. >> he's using the word disinflation and low inflation. for him, that is still a risk to this economic recovery as all. that is indicative of what the
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ecb is thinking right now. to prolonged low inflation and prolonged inflation expectations , if they are too low, it may require quantitative easing. the issue is the timing. right now, the timing of any action. us ae timing, he has given clue. it is next week. i'ms june 5, or isn't it? asking you guys a question. are they all onboard? is this debate ongoing? are they ready to do anything big outside of a rate cut? it might just the that they are not. it might be that at this conference are going to talk about just that. >> i think that is a big question. 90% ofo do a rate cut as economists surveyed by bloomberg think they're going to do? are we going to go into a negative rate environment? has anything you've seen in the headlines changed what you think the market's expectation will be and what the ecb does? >> he's talking about a possibility of buying asset back
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securities. --rybody knows it is a can it is an incredibly conservative institution. deposit rates are zero percent. if you cut the rate you're going negative heard that is pretty unconventional. no major central bank has done it outside of those banks. once you start cutting their rates by five or 10 basis points, is i can't make a difference? it is unconventional chance of qqq. do people really expected? the bar is very high, but to get qe next week, that would be used. the backime it will be of england funding lending. it could be tied to mental conditions. the money but only if you are lending to business similar to the bank of england funding. >> as you know, the problem has been they have had that program,
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but they are started to be paid back. you have an expanding balance sheet. he is artie talked about the strength of the the the euro laying into this inflation. if the fed stops or contracts, you could completely reversed the euro dollar and go down to -- 21.3 oh or 1.200. >> maybe they won't lend the money. could be some unintended consequences. if you put cost for the bank, they could pass it businesses and consumers at home. the theory is that they lend more. in practice, they haven't got a clue. >> certain voices are saying the ecb does not have the mandate to do this very >> the political hurdle is massive. germany -- >>
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far right parties in france and the u.k. took an unprecedented first place in elections for european parliament. former italian prime minister mario monti was on tv earlier this morning in an exclusive interview with manus cranny. manus started by asking him if national governments should be concerned. moreey should be listening and speaking differently. toy should be listening more ,heir domestic public opinions because the mounting wave of andlism was there, clear visible, already since a few years. they should also be speaking differently, because most governments, even the most alo-european nation k
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government already plays a cynical game with europe. they participate in decisions made in brussels with other governments, and then blame brussels as if it were a for thet thing sometimes unpopular consequences of those decisions at home. >> what i want to know, mr. monti, is they should be listening more and paying more attention, should they therefore be lobbying to change their fiscal policy? this viselike grip that we have in terms of ?tepping back from spending is her case to me made for adjusting of fiscal policy? >> there was a case already. reinforced, but i think one needs a balancing act, many countries in the south have made progress toward achieving budgetary discipline.
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italy is of course a country that came out of the crisis without any financial assistance from anybody. excessivew out of any deficit procedure by the eu. in recognition of the good progress made, or being made by unionies, the european should go to a policy framework that is more expansionary in , bothof investment investment at the european level some moreowing nationally financed public investment for selected projects. >> let's get more on that eu elections. hans, do any establishment -- did any establishment parties have a good night? matteo renzi's party did very
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well. there are two numbers i want to focus on from all of these 28 member countries. 41 and 14. 41 is the percent of votes that matteo renzi's party got in italy from the people in italy. 14% is what francois hollande caught with his party in france. that put him in a distant third. they're taking different approaches to unemployment in their own countries. renzi is talking about new but mostly voters are appearing to give him a little more time to implement his reforms. when you look at the surprises in this election, a lot of polling indicated that far right parties and even in the left-wing party would make great advances. but no one called was that matteo renzi would be validated in this vote. that is what he has received. he got a little more time. if you look at what italian yields are doing, the markets sure seems to like what -- how
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the vote went in italy. that is the most lasting story. the national politicians will respond and then we are in a different ballgame. hans, thank you very much. >> billionaire chocolate tycoon petro poroshenko has claimed victory in the race for president. ryan chilcote has been speaking with him. ryan, large parts of the country did not vote here. you said 1/7 of the country did not vote. it still looks like a landslide for poroshenko. >> it does look like a landslide, olivia. we probably will get the official count for some time. with a fifth of the vote counted, he is leading with 54%, a decisive win and one that is consistent with what we have seen from the exit polls. i spoke with him just after you got off the stage, after he made what was effectively an acceptance speech. i asked him what his first job
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will be as the new president of ukraine. >> ukraine now is in a state of war. we are an object of aggression. every single night, ukrainian soldiers are giving their lives. for restoring law, order and he's in the eastern part of ukraine. president, but as a future commander-in-chief of ukrainian armed forces, i tried to do my best to defend ukrainian people, to bring security and he's. -- and peace. >> separatists destroyed ballot boxes and deprived 5 million people of the right to vote in the east of the country. he spent -- they spent this morning attacking the donetsk airport. .t is a small airport services are reasonable but no google are problematic for the
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ukrainian central authorities who will clearly be looking at this. we have also heard from the russian foreign minister within the last 15 minutes warning ukrainian central government that it would be a colossal mistake to use the armed forces in operations in the eased and south of the country. he did, however, indicate that russia will respect the vote. is that the same thing as saying they believe it is legitimate, but they will respect the vote, and that russia is ready for our schenkel. thoses is -- he says votes to not require any middlemen. poroshenko clearly has a different view. >> i think we should find out a format which helps us to solve a long list of problems we now have in russia -- with russia. >> i think that would be
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possible. our americann with and european union partners. poroshenko has been speaking live for the last 15 minutes. he has said that ukraine will seek compensation from russia. it will go to the international courts to seek compensation for the annexation of crimea. he's clearly indicating that is does not expect to take crimea back by force, but that is by no does an old issue that he not intend to return on. this is a president-elect, as we expect him to be announced later today, that is going to have an awful lot of work on his hands after he is inaugurated, which we expected take toys in early july. back to you. >> it will be very interesting to see how he tries to reassert of the central government with ali separatists questioning his legitimacy.
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>> just ahead, cyborg football turf. it is neither artificial or natural. we will show you the world-class that sets for the world cup. ♪
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of this mandate that by going there and trying to turn things upside down, but rather to continue the action doing underas then the two governments that preceded renzi. >> former prime minister mario monti speaking exclusively to bloomberg earlier this morning. our next guest joins us to speak about the european parliament vote. and there is a huge victory for renzi. a big reaction the bond market share at how is it that matteo renzi managed to beat back the way for populism that we saw arising in both france and the u.k.? >> i think that matteo renzi managed to polarize votes within the centerleft.
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he probably got some votes from what were previously center-right votes. renzi succeeded in developing a withe centerleft bastion -- where the center-right remains in archipelago scattered among many smaller players. i do believe that renzi's success is very good for him, however, it is a bad omen for the current cross party and government coalition. don't get me wrong here, what i'm saying is that if we look at the numbers, we see very clearly that there is one voter, -- one winner, matteo renzi, but a very
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large number of losers, and that many of these losers who barely , are all together with renzi in a cross partisan government coalition. if just one of the coalition members is benefiting from the current state of affairs, this is really going to undermine the future of the coalition. becausevery important, if the coalition becomes unstable, this will inevitably execution of reforms. you need to partisan majorities in parliament to do institutional reforms, i.e., an electoral law reform, an overhaul of the senate, and the reform of section five of the italian constitution. if the numbers are those we are
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seeing today, silvio berlusconi and alfano have very little interest in continuing down the path of an electoral reform which points towards a two-party system, basically because berlusconi's party is now the second largest artery in the country, but the third-largest one. you only enter into such an agreement if you are one of the two largest parties very berlusconi is not in such a position. i doubt that there will be institutional reforms. hopeat is the best we can for, francesco? you are saying that the coalition government could collapse, and secondly, the chance of institutional reform are not great because of the dynamic. what is the best we can hope for in coming months? >> i do think we will see an acceleration in separate -- in
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several different areas. we will see an acceleration between the centerleft. matteo renzi will use his success to conduct a massive heart he purge. we'll see an acceleration within the center-right, the center-right just desperately needs a new leadership that wants to compete with matteo renzi's centerleft. a third acceleration will be a succession for the presidential office. the current head of state, george napolitano is a very old gentleman, age 88. he tried and failed to craft cross artisan majorities. he tried and failed with mario monti. he tried and failed with enrico letta. he tried and failed with the current government. there is no way that he can stay
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any longer in office. he will probably try to influence his own succession and will takead of state italy to new elections. >> francesco, thank you for joining us. francesco galietti, the chief ceo of sonar. some are worrying that the anti-euro parties will hinder central-bank efforts to bolster the region's economic recovery. the euro is now rising after -- to signals to policy policymakers that he was ready to take action. the euro is up just a fraction at 1.3644. ♪
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>> first, bloomberg. >> welcome back to "the pulse." live on and .treaming online the crisis in ukraine has eastern european countries
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looking for alternative suppliers. one company caught in the crossfire of all this is the german utility rwe. i asked him if he still sees russia as a reliable supplier of gas. he said yes, so far. so, yes, as always it is good policy to have multiple sources. reserves in the north sea and netherlands declining, we need to look how the dependence of russia can be somewhat compensated by other sources. >> i also asked him if he other gas prices here in europe. stall, iitical talks don't expect a real long-term freezing of the relationship, because russia is dependent on us and our money as we are on gas.
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>> this is a company that buys gas from gas prompt. they did throughout the cold war. they buy from gazprom and then sell to the czech republic. they sell to germany and actually in the past month they are doing very well because a crisis in actually helped them. >> they're selling assets to boost their balance sheet. he confirmed he is not going to be selling its stake in the uranium processor. it doesn't look like it is going to happen this year. he says and i feel is a possible avenue. i'm not sure it is the most likely one. of course, the detainees the money to shore up its balance sheet. >> totally expected because of germany's stance on nuclear energy. to beuld expect rwe getting rid of nuclear assets. skipping coming assets and dividends and costs. i asked him if he thinks he will have to go back to the market
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rates. he said absolutely not, expect to return to profitability this year. >> they made a loss last year, the first since 1949. we're going to talk turf when we come back. ♪ .
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to "the pulse." here are some of the top headlines today. 13 antigovernment protest leaders were really loosed -- were released. ukrainians elected billionaire peter poroshenko as president. he won more than half the votes in sunday's election, of wanting a runoff. most people in eastern half of the country did not vote.
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the biggest antiestablishment victory came in france, greece, and u.k.. the dutch finance minister gave us his reaction to the election outcome. >> the clear message, and the simon of rest to deliver more results in the next couple of years -- the assignment to deliver more results in the next couple of years. let's take a look at how european markets are trading in reaction to the parliament revotes. >> six weeks of gains on the stoxx 600. cac 40 up. dax at a record high. , it is closese today, as is the u.s. trade. the biggest mover is in italy, up 2.5% on the ftse. italy neverer of
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faced a national vote. he gets 41% of the vote. his party does, for the european parliamentary elections. that is a stamp of approval. down by 14 basis points. are headed back to 3%. , pretty muchar dead set on the day. draghi, the top line, though inflation, expectations may require qa. full steam ahead to june 5, ecb meeting where expectations are pretty high. back to you. >> let's get back to our exclusive interview with mario monti. confident the prime minister will make use not by going there and trying to
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throw things upside down, but continue the action that early .as been doing already persuade germany and other companies in the north that we all, including them, need to pursue structure reforms at home and to have continuation of budgetary discipline. but one which is more forward-looking and more respectful of the need for europe to increase its public investments. >> at sign government bonds are surging -- italian government bonds are surging. record lows around the periphery of europe over the past month in the bond market. are we getting something wrong here? are we assuming too little risk for markets? assuming too little risk in the
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periphery of europe with those bond markets? no, i don't think markets are going to sleep, is unfortunately, they did for 10 years after the inception of the euro. think they have assumed the periphery is serious. what i would expect, honestly, is a relative improvement within the periphery of the market recognition of italy. because italy is the only whichy in southern europe came out of the crisis, as i said, without any initial assistance externally and is the only country in southern europe which is no longer in the excessive debt procedure. that includes all southern europe but also france, belgium, even the netherlands are now being observed because of
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not italy.eficit, so i don't find it normal that italy still has to pay a higher premium, a higher spread over germany, then spain is. staying on your up and looking at the parliament to elections, we're joined by the ceo of rothschild. thank you for speaking with us. it looks like the results from a lot of the elections are a backlash against a lot of the capitalist forces that drove the recovery. you're the founder of the inclusive capitalism conference, which is happening tomorrow in london. i think a lot of people here that phrase and automatically think those are two contradictory ideas. capitalism and inclusive. what you say to that? >> i say for adam smith, he would not have had use the word inclusive capitalism because for him, capitalism by definition was inclusive. so it would be a redundancy.
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unfortunately, you're right. today it is an oxymoron to think inclusive couples him. that is why we have the election results. that is why 61% of britain said they will vote for the party that is toughest on big business. what we're doing tomorrow is we are gathering a group of people together to say, this is has not been without faults. ofis not the business business to solve society's problems, but it is really dangerous when business is viewed as one of society's problems. and that is where we have gotten, and your point about the election. so let's bring people into the room who can take action and decide, we are going to behave in a longer-term fashion and we're going to behave and manage our companies for broader -- >> and the perception is important, isn't it? the perception of the confidence in the system is equal to income
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growth itself. you have done some research on that. yes, yes, absolutely. in the united states, for instance, when middle income group of 14% -- grew by 14%, the people who trusted the government grew from 23% to 40% and now it is down to 17%. it is not good for business when the public doesn't trust the future and isn't optimistic. >> how do you get companies to do this? comment is by nature have an obligation to their shareholders and to debate focused on short-term interest -- and tend to be focused on short-term interest. what should they do to be more inclusive? >> we're starting with the investors. we're going to huge pools of capital and saying, go and measure the ceo on the basis of the business that she builds over 12 years come and not 12 quarters. we are going to investors and saying, inquire what is the
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what is thelture, ethical basis on which this company does business, how is this business taking care of the supply chain? so we will have fantastic ceos likeeally walk this walk, paul pollman from unilever. we have companies in america like the gap or costco that are saying, we're not going to wait for government to tell us with the minimum wage should be. we are going to pay more than the minimum wage. what do they get out of that? they get a dedicated workforce and customers who feel proud tobuy there. there is a business reason for doing the right thing. thisw does this fit in to pfizer astrazeneca story, which of course, if it takes place today, could be the biggest taker -- >> hang on just one second. i pulled an excerpt from the op-ed on the deal from martin
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wall. if we could just pull it up. >> does this herald a sea change in thinking because moore has been thought about the research, the jobs them on the shareholders themselves? is this a very important seachange do you think? >> i think the resistance to the bit is telling us something about the way pfizer is viewed. pfizer is viewed as a company int does not invest enough rmb and not taking care of its future, and instead, is going around the world gobbling up companies. whether that is true or not, the fact that is the perception has definitely hurt it. so the shareholders who have
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saying, we have great research, we have great future products and we want to be in is for the long term, i think are making a statement of stop >> how much shareholder appetite you think there can be? you mention pension funds. a lot of them would say they have the advantage by not going after socially responsible businesses. >> hedge funds would say that. it should is additional investors who are representing teachers or 30 years old now and will be retiring and 30 years who need a company who's going to survive for 30 years, not just the ups and downs of every ,uarter, should pension funds should sovereign wealth funds, should the big money of the world really be putting their money into these hedge funds or short sellers or high-frequency traders? why don't we insist that these institutional managers investing companies that are investing for the long term, that are
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investing in supply chain, that are investing in apprenticeships? the germans have shown as you can build competitive companies and pay good wages. >> do you know your telecommunications industry well? you made a name for yourself a decade or two ago within that industry. >> emphasis on two. >> and you made a few dollars out of the industry as well. it is an industry that is changing day by day. u.s., but europe as well. whether it is telecom, satellite, cable. where is this industry heading? when you look back with your experience, how exciting is the telecommunications space right now? >> is very exciting and i wish i had never sold. don't sell too early, is my message to young people. is going to bee on our iphone were ipad or samsung. everything is going to come to
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that little thing in our hand. the telecommunications history is extraordinary. see it with time warner cable and comcast. as my niece one said to me, i never watch tv on my tv anymore. rothschild for joining us. a great conference in london. though clinton, christine lagarde will be speaking. -- though clinton, christine lagarde will be speaking. we will be right back. ♪
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>> welcome back. today is the deadline for pfizer to deliver a firm offer. joining us now on the phone, health-care analyst and portfolio manager. thank you very much for joining us today. >> good morning. >> is today the day that pfizer officially walks away from astrazeneca at least for three there willhs? >> probably issue a statement admitting defeat. that the possibility to renew talks in about three months time. i think pfizer really needs this deal. my best guess would be in three months time we won't see a new
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offer from pfizer for astra. >> you think in three months time we won't see a new offer? what about in six months? why wouldn't pfizer hope that astrazeneca shareholders will pressurize the board, at least enter into talks with pfizer? think astrazeneca has very interesting pipeline right now. if you just look at the sheer number of clinical data points astrazeneca generated this year, r&dcan see right now rmb -- is exclusive in a couple of areas. the company right now is being with the current price offer. however, the ashes and the board
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give a very clear indication of which price point they would be willing to -- the astrazeneca board gave very clear indication of which price point they would to negotiate. i think pfizer can afford it, given the benefits they could see. i think if pfizer increases the price, then the chances are there the astra board could renew talks. i don't really see it happening. >> i'm going to preach a question that mark put to our guest earlier on in the show, which is simply, do you think astrazeneca is making too much of these new promising oncology drugs they have in the pipeline, they said that is the reason pfizer doesn't have the price right because those drugs are really going to deliver more value? it is not only oncology. oncology looks very interesting. i would say it is difficult to
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asteriskse drugs, but --lly really hasn't shown hasn't shown good results. you have diabetes, autoimmune diseases, so i think -- and on top of that, you have three options in very high risk areas like alzheimer's, which i don't think anyone attaches any value to now, but obviously, that is something on top of that shareholders -- astrazeneca shareholders could potentially benefit from. is not only oncology. >> thank you for joining us, health-care analyst and portfolio manager. >> and from farmer to football, the world cup kicks off next month. players are getting world-class
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grass. cyborg version of football turf. you're going to like this.
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>> did i tell you how excited i am about the world cup? i wasn't really listening to that, osha's vicki, i can't wait for this tournament to start. >> we had a guest on earlier who said berg way may beat england. which way does the wind blow? it's, which way does the grass below? >> draghi versus deflation.
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he says he is ready to take action in june. ♪
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>> let's get a check on the euro
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dollar. 30% of antiestablishment parties or they got a hundred percent vote is a better way of putting it. news from lisbon where the ecb forum is taking place and mario draghi signaling the policy makers are ready to take action in june should they see -- the euro is up. it was down, but it is higher now. >> now for a look at what we're watching for the rest of the day. you are watching mario draghi. >> the ecb forum in portugal. nothing earth shattering will he knew from the man himself except for the fact -- nothing earth shatteringly new from the man himself. portugal interested in and southern portugal, you get
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-- trying to get my words out. >> this is the european jackson hole, isn't it. >> yes. >> everybody wants to have a mountainous retreat. but the first-ever, so big deal. >> you're watching poroshenko with what looks like a landslide victory. >> he is poised to become president of ukraine. almost 2/3 of the vote counted and he is 54%, which allows them to avoid a second round. that is a most old news because there's more fighting in the east. the pretests were busy -- separatists have seized an airport in the east of the country and poroshenko says he the military operations there. the foreign minister saying that would be a colossal mistake. definitely be watching the east of ukraine. >> hans, your following the
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european parliamentary elections. >> the overall story is the right-wing and left-wing parties came to power or in first place in their home country. in a way, the most important story is the 41%. the markets seem to like it. this seems to be renzi being validated by his people and now the markets. >> thank you. thank you to all of our guests. he didn't have a lot of confidence in the electoral law. he needs the support of all of those parties which haven't done so well -- >> but matteo renzi escaping the blame. >> that is it from us.
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keep it right here on bloomberg television. poker night. >> it is memorial day in washington. facing off in a winner takes all charity poker tournament. >> enjoy the holiday. ♪
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